The Numerai competition gives NMR, a cryptocurrency. To see the market valuation of the NMR on the exchange side, you can visit exchanges such as https://bittrex.com/Market/Index?MarketName=BTC-NMR. As of Jul 8, 2017, 4 to 5pm, the price in USD is $27.6. Given the liquidity issues and seemingly wide disagreement on the value of the NMR at the moment, another data point one can calculate is the valuation of the betters on NMR that participate in the betting game. (See my prior post for more info on the betting game: https://theedrrblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/thinking-about-bounding-value-of-nmr.html)
The bettors' valuation as of Jul 8, 2017, 3am, is $101.23 per NMR on average. The median value is $32.26. Some caveat on the estimation:
- There are still a few days before the betting game ends. So the estimates are valuations of those betters that bet early for whatever reasons.
- The bettor valuation per NMR assumes the bettor believes he/she will be eligible for the pool (i.e., expect his/her forecast to be better than random guessing.). Thus, the actual valuation of the better is likely to be lower.
