Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Bank of Japan’s Economic Outlook

The monetary policy statement is at http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130522a.pdf. CPI is still negative, but “some indicators suggest a rise in inflatoin expectations.” The outlook:

“Japan’s economy has started picking up.  Exports have stopped decreasing as overseas  economies have been moving out of the deceleration phase that had continued since last year  and are gradually heading toward a pick-up.  Business fixed investment continues to show  resilience in nonmanufacturing and appears to have stopped weakening on the whole.   Public investment has continued to increase, and housing investment has generally been  picking up.  Private consumption has seen increased resilience, assisted by the improvement  in consumer sentiment.  Reflecting these developments in demand both at home and abroad,  industrial production has stopped decreasing and signs of picking up have become  increasingly evident.  Meanwhile, financial conditions are accommodative.  On the price  front, the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh  food) has been negative, due to the reversal of the previous year’s movements in energy-related and durable consumer goods.  Some indicators suggest a rise in inflation  expectations.

With regard to the outlook, Japan’s economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery  path, mainly against the background that domestic demand remains resilient due to the effects  of monetary easing as well as various economic measures, and that growth rates of overseas  economies gradually pick up.  The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is expected to  register smaller declines for the time being, and thereafter is likely to gradually turn positive.”

Also of interest:

“Mr. T. Kiuchi proposed that the Bank will aim to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in the  medium to long term and designate quantitative and qualitative monetary easing as an intensive  measure with a time frame of about two years.  The proposal was defeated by an 8-1 majority vote.   Voting for the proposal: Mr. T. Kiuchi.  Voting against the proposal: Mr. H. Kuroda, Mr. K. Iwata, Mr.  H. Nakaso, Mr. R. Miyao, Mr. Y. Morimoto, Ms. S. Shirai, Mr. K. Ishida, and Mr. T. Sato.”